Miles and Points enthusiasts new to gambling should avoid common myths, misunderstandings, and superstitious thinking.
Those active in points and miles circles may dip their toes into gambling due to the overlap among casino loyalty, travel loyalty, and credit cards. One challenge is that there is a wealth of bad information, especially from gambling influencers who I believe should know better, but somehow do not.
Social media likely creates a bad environment for factual gambling information because dramatic claims, ‘systems,’ and wins are more shareable and exciting compared to reality-based mathematical and logical analysis. Popularity doesn’t make information factual.
The Myth of “Loose Slots”
One influencer with more than 75,000 followers posted a poll asking “Slot players only: Where do you win the most in Vegas?” and titled the poll or its results as “Loosest Slots in Vegas.”
I often hear about “loose slots,” but we can’t reliably know what ‘loose’ means from short-term results and personal experience. If there is such a thing as a ‘loose slot machine’ (more accurately, a machine with a lower house edge compared to others), the data is known by the manufacturer or casino, not people answering social media polls who almost certainly don’t keep detailed records and don’t have a large sample size.
It’s entirely possible for someone to play slot machines with a poor return and have positive results in the short-term. It’s also possible for someone to only play slot machines with an advantage and end up losing in the short-term. Short-term results and anecdotal experiences on X or elsewhere are not reliable indicators for payouts on slot machines. Actual return to player numbers cannot be inferred from short-term personal results or poll answers.
In reality, you can play slot machines with an advantage and largely don’t have to worry about whether slots are ‘loose’ or not because certain meters, symbols, or other game states allow you to play with an edge. A favorable game state, as a result of an accumulated feature, matters more than the base overall house edge of the machine. Read more here.
Roulette, “Lucky Dealers,” and the Gambler’s Fallacy
A different influencer posted about Triple Zero Roulette, betting on zeroes, noting that a dealer told him he would ‘try to hit his bet.’ First, the base house edge on Triple Zero Roulette is likely around 8%, making it a terrible proposition, compared to a single-zero table with around a 3% house edge. Second, to counter the gambling myth, dealers can’t control outcomes at a fair Roulette table. There’s also no such thing as a ‘lucky dealer’ or an ‘unlucky dealer.’ Outcomes are random, regardless of what dealers ‘try to do,’ think they can do, or have done.
The same Roulette influencer shared a picture of recent outcomes at a Roulette table, noting ‘the zeroes haven’t hit,’ so he bet that zero would hit. This is a classic example of the gambler’s fallacy – the idea that recent past outcomes will impact future outcomes. In reality, every spin of a Roulette wheel is a random, independent event. Some people also think that because red came up five times in a row, the next outcome must be red…or black. In reality, black or red isn’t ‘due’ and alleged ‘cold’ or ‘hot’ ‘streaks’ don’t impact future spins.
Bad Craps Advice and the Myth of the “Good Shooter”
Finally, I saw a recent post about Craps that contains numerous myths about gambling:
“Always watch a few shooters. No need to jump right in. Especially with a smaller bankroll. You can always toss out a 6&8 if someone starts a good roll. Or min bet field. Use that to place a couple numbers if you’re lucky enough to hit it”
This poster is likely to lose a lot of money playing Craps. Like in the Roulette example where past spins don’t impact future spins, past rolls don’t impact future rolls. You can’t just “watch a few shooters” and defy mathematics by identifying an alleged ‘good shooter’ who will overcome the house edge.
What is a “good roll,” anyway? In reality, this is probably an assessment of someone winning money from random, fair dice rolls. The “good roll” is an assessment after the fact, but just because they had a “good roll” one time or even a handful of times doesn’t mean we can just “watch shooters” and win in the future based on their recent, random results.
A Smaller Bankroll Doesn’t Change the Math
Also, the amount of money you buy in with or wager from your “smaller bankroll” does not impact the result of the dice. However, a lower buy-in or less money on hand will increase the likelihood of going broke in the short-term because we don’t have enough money to withstand volatility in the short-term. (As an aside, I often think people misuse the word ‘bankroll,’ as I wrote about here).
People like this poster have mistaken ideas about money management, like that we could just “watch shooters” and only bet after “good rolls,” and that this would somehow increase our winning percentages. In reality, the house edge of the game still exists, and craps is not a positive expectation game.
Why the Field Bet Makes Things Worse
The suggestion to “min bet field” is especially bad with “a smaller bankroll” because the house edge on such a bet is likely around 3- 6%, depending on the layouts and payouts. Betting the field exposes more of the “smaller bankroll” as opposed to just betting the lower house edge pass or don’t pass line, for example.
Finally, the poster introduces ‘luck’ into the advice, noting that if you are “lucky enough to hit [the field bet],” you can then use that money “to place a couple numbers.” Once again, we have more bets, possibly a higher house edge, and greater risk for this alleged “smaller bankroll.” Worse yet, the place bets vary in house edge, with the 4 or 10 carrying about a 7% house edge compared to the 6 and 8 carrying around a 1.5% house edge.
Moving from one high house edge bet to another based on ‘luck’ isn’t a good formula for winning with “a smaller bankroll” or a larger bankroll. Placing bets on multiple numbers may also feel safer because you have more options to win, but in reality, if the alleged ‘good roller’ or ‘good shooter’ rolls a seven, the multiple place bets lose. Putting more wagers on the table simply puts more money at risk and exposes the “smaller bankroll.”
Sadly, ideas about ‘betting systems’ and ‘money management’ in Craps are a dime a dozen, and none of them can overcome the house edge (and they often increase variance, as we have seen in this example).
Trust Math, Not Gambling Superstition
To be a more effective gambler, know the rules, know the house edge, and favor math and long-term thinking over short-term superstition and anecdotal experiences. Rather than going to influencers creating polls with conflicting ideas about ‘loose slots’ and ‘where do you win the most,’ go to content from reliable sources like Wizard of Odds, Las Vegas Advisor, and of course, articles here on TravelZork.
As always, gamble intelligently and use credit responsibly.
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