Worried about negative variance in gambling and want to reduce risk with a low volatility game? Consider multi-play Video Poker.
In past articles, I wrote about using online Blackjack as a tool to earn casino statuses, free-play/comps, and accelerate credit card spending through purchasing gift cards and prepaid cards to fund online gambling.
Although the house edge of online games like Blackjack with Surrender is around a half percent, financial swings can occur, causing players to hesitate and lament possible and actual short-term losses. I suggest newer players, especially people not experienced with gambling, start at a small bet level to become accustomed to gambling and the psychological ups and downs.
For those who are still concerned about variance or want to reduce variance, multi-play Video Poker can be a great option compared to Blackjack and single-play Video Poker. A multi-play Video Poker game takes your total wager and spreads it across multiple hands, so a loss on the initial hand does not deplete your entire bet like a single-line Video Poker game would.
America Loves Math
Consider: You wager $10 on a single-line Video Poker game ($2 five-credit), are dealt a terrible hand, and don’t improve on the draw. You lose your $10 bet. You’re exposed to the full variance on that one hand (and the draw).
Instead, in a multi-play Video Poker game, you wager a total of $12.50 ($0.255 credits10 hands), but this bet is spread across multiple hands. Even if the initial hand loses like in the previous scenario, you have chances to improve in the other nine hands – and often will.
Assuming an identical paytable (this isn’t always the case), expected value doesn’t change, but variance is lessened when you wager the same or similar total amount.
Playing multi-play Video Poker rather than a single-hand game is similar to investing in an index fund rather than a single company, or wagering $1 on 10 coin tosses rather than $10 on one coin toss. Risk reduction is the name of the game with multi-play Video Poker.
More Benefits
Another upside of multi-play Video Poker is the ability to see more hands so that those inevitable Royal Flushes hit (approximately one in 40,000 hands in Jacks or Better Video Poker). The Royal Flush payout won’t be as dramatic in multi-play Video Poker compared to single-line, but this may avoid W2-G forms and additional taxes. As always, consult your tax professional.
Real-Life Example
I recently found a full-play ten-line Video Poker game in the High Limit Room (and elsewhere) at Rio Las Vegas. I was happier playing a 10-play game with a total bet of $12.50, as I described, rather than another game with higher variance. I didn’t see 100-play games ($10 total wager) like I have played online or seen in person, but I was happy with the ten-play full-pay game, especially considering that in-person multi-play Video Poker typically has lackluster paytables.
As I explained in a recent podcast episode, my multi-play sessions at Rio caught the attention of a host and helped me gain the first level of earned casino status, Azul, with low short-term variance. I even had some positive variance, with not just one but two Royal Flushes in the same round, resulting in the very first world problem: a tax form.
Listen to the episode here:
A Moment of Clarity
Ultimately, if you’re properly bankrolled to gamble and you play well, variance is nothing but the price of admission for gambling and, given a long-term sample, ‘the math will math.’
As Michael Trager often says, anything can happen in the short-term when gambling. Our focus should be on the process and the expected value, not on a short-term result, especially if that negative result discourages you from taking advantage of good gambling opportunities.
Day-to-day losses in gambling are temporary swings, whether in Poker, Video Poker, Blackjack, or other games. Do not set an expectation that every session ‘must be’ this or that or that you ‘should’ have a certain result in the short-term, because you will be disappointed and lose the psychological battle with your own mind (and perhaps math, too).
More than a decade ago, I must admit, my first losses in the microstakes of online Poker ($5 buy-ins) felt bad, but I got used to the process and knew I was playing with an edge. The positive results, I told myself, will come even after losing days, weeks, and even months…and they did. I kept improving, moving up in stakes, and the bad feelings of all-in $5 losses are a thing of the past.
Today, sure, it isn’t desirable to have a $1000 losing session in online Blackjack, for example (this happened this afternoon), but I know it’s inevitable. I also know there will be (and have been) $1000 winning sessions.
I have the longer perspective by looking at my overall results in the Poker Bankroll Income Tracker app I use. I reassure myself that all will be fine, I play according to basic strategy, and I smile seeing that I’m around an overall half-percent loss on the face of the game as I should be (not including credit card rewards, cashback, statuses, and much more that give me an edge on the funding side).
What a horrible situation it would be to avoid potential variance one could afford to withstand and miss great opportunities for expected value! Do not retreat from great opportunities just because there will be some losing days, because the overall forecast is one of winning.
Does it ultimately matter, when I’m properly bankrolled, if I lose $100 or $1000 today when I have a consistent edge and the math will work out in the long run and the $100 wins and $1000 wins will be part of the journey, likely just as often? I’ll gladly give up $98 today to get $100+ tomorrow!
Will losses, especially when wagering a (hopefully) small $5 or $10 at a time with a proper bankroll really impact you other than momentary discomfort?
Wrap-up
Multi-play Video Poker doesn’t avoid variance, but it should lessen it, making your psychological journey through gambling feel much lighter. Disciplined, bankrolled, and sharp players with a strong mindset will ultimately prevail, even if some sessions have a losing score.
For an online example of 100-play Video Poker, wagering just $10 a round, see my recent video discussing Jacks or Better strategy:
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